{
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  "name": "Zvi 读 METR 报告后的结论：AI 研发已在约 2 倍加速，比 AI 2027 的时间线提前数月，离完全 RSI 可能不到一年",
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  "date": "2026-11-10",
  "summary": "11-09 发布。Zvi 逐条拆 METR 对 Anthropic 的深度权限评估：2025 年 10 月以来 Anthropic 在 ECI 上的进展约为此前（2024-03 至 2025-10）的两倍（置信区间约 1.3-3 倍），其中大半可归因于 AI 自己在做 AI 研发；没有观察到会阻止进一步加速的瓶颈或明显收益递减——但 METR 指出报告里最影响风险判断的若干关键发现、以及瓶颈分析被 Anthropic 删节了。METR 的 Ajeya Cotra 据报告和 Anthropic 自家 RSP 判断，RSP 里「显著加速」那条门槛看起来已经被跨过。Zvi 的落点是时间线比 AI 2027 提前数月、朴素外推下离完全递归自我改进可能不到一年，并点出一个元层面的事实：连 METR 团队自己都没预期到这么大的加速（Ryan Greenblatt 今年原本只预期 1.15-1.3 倍）。",
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    "text": "信号的原文出处（Don't Worry About the Vase（Zvi Mowshowitz））"
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